Why Is 2nd Order Thinking Important In Trading & Investing?
Figuring out 2nd order consequences is especially pertinent in financial markets, whose complexity leads to ripple effects being felt in unexpected ways.
Why Is 2nd Order Thinking Important? Unintended Consequences
2nd order thinking is considering the consequences of the consequences of an action. Acting without regard to these can lead to large unintended consequences.
An EM Debt Crisis Is Really A Dollar Crisis 4
USD shortages can quickly morph into global economic crises, like in 2008 and 2020. But authorities keep prescribing policies that undermine more than help.
An EM Debt Crisis Is Really A Dollar Crisis 3
Do trillions in fiscal stimulus and central bank QE mean that the head of the IMF’s concerns about a potential EM debt crisis will not come to pass?
An EM Debt Crisis Is Really A Dollar Crisis 2
How would an EM collapse come about? Mainstream narratives blame capital outflows due to political upheaval, or a fall in creditworthiness – hence higher rates.
An EM Debt Crisis Is Really A Dollar Crisis 1
The head of the IMF is concerned about higher interest rates tightening financial conditions in emerging markets and causing a debt crisis. It isn’t so simple.
What You Need To Know About Low Rates & High Stock Prices
Do low rates lead to higher stock prices? The logic goes: low rates give us higher present values and thus lead to higher equity values. Is this argument valid?
The Butterfly In The Chip Shortage
The global chip shortage can be attributed to Covid disrupting global supply chains. But there’s more to it. Covid is merely the butterfly flapping its wings.
An Easy Way For You To Understand Complex Markets 2
Paradigm is the most important part of the Iceberg model. It exists on an ideological level but manifests itself physically through all the layers above it.
An Easy Way For You To Understand Complex Markets 1
The Iceberg model is a great tool to help you think in terms of systems. It has 4 layers, events, patterns of behavior, systems structure, and paradigm.
