The Butterfly In The Chip Shortage
The global chip shortage can be attributed to Covid disrupting global supply chains. But there’s more to it. Covid is merely the butterfly flapping its wings.
An Easy Way For You To Understand Complex Markets 2
Paradigm is the most important part of the Iceberg model. It exists on an ideological level but manifests itself physically through all the layers above it.
An Easy Way For You To Understand Complex Markets 1
The Iceberg model is a great tool to help you think in terms of systems. It has 4 layers, events, patterns of behavior, systems structure, and paradigm.
Thinking Markets Are Simple Might Be Costing You Money 3
Reductive thinking is also widely used in financial forecasting, using the same seductive “because of A , B will happen” formula.
Thinking Markets Are Simple Might Be Costing You Money 2
Reductive statements do more harm than good because they cause traders to confuse correlation with causation, and believe that markets are easy to understand.
Thinking Markets Are Simple Might Be Costing You Money 1
Nassim Taleb summed up reductive thinking very well: “As much as you believe in the ‘keep-it-simple-stupid’ it is the simplification that is dangerous.”
