How To Trade Through The Fog Of War. Part 3: Stocks
The fog of war is upon markets. Uncertainty & volatility over Russia’s invasion complicates decision making. Here’s what you need to focus on for stocks.
A Simple Indicator Of Omicron’s Systemic Threat
Omicron has spooked markets off their highs. Stocks, flying high just a week ago, suddenly look fragile. How much of a systemic threat is currently priced in?
If Trillions Must Buy, How Important Is The Economy?
In order to understand the relationship between the stock market and the economy, we must consider who the largest participants are, and how they affect prices.
Are Record High EU Stocks In A Bubble?
Europe’s Stoxx 600 index has been making record highs. Are EU stocks in a bubble? We calculated a European equivalent of the Buffett Indicator to find out.
Even More Bubblelicious US Equities
US equities have grown even more bubblelicious from when we checked-in last. Can this end in a way that doesn’t involve mass liquidations and margin calls?
What You Need To Know About Low Rates & High Stock Prices
Do low rates lead to higher stock prices? The logic goes: low rates give us higher present values and thus lead to higher equity values. Is this argument valid?
The Value-Momentum Coin
Value and momentum are two concepts which are more difficult to define than people think they are. What is value and momentum, really, and how are they related?
Change How You Think About Rate Cuts & Hikes Now!
Fed cuts rates = buy equities might be the most Pavlovian response conditioned into market participants in modern history. But, are rate cuts really bullish?
Have You Been Fooled By This Chart? QE vs Stocks
People have looked at the correlation between stock prices and bank reserves and concluded that Fed QE is the reason for soaring equities. This just isn’t true.
Is The Stock Market In A Bubble? Equity Valuations Say YES!
Is the stock market in a bubble? Using measures of equity valuations, the Buffett indicator and the CAPE, the answer seems to be a resounding yes!
