If Trillions Must Buy, How Important Is The Economy?
In order to understand the relationship between the stock market and the economy, we must consider who the largest participants are, and how they affect prices.
Lumber: What Goes Up Must Come Down
US lumber prices are down ~50% from their highs. Even though this drop comes after a sixfold rally, it does hint strongly at some kind of underlying change.
Has Dr Copper Made A Move?
Having soared to new highs after global shutdowns and reopenings, copper prices have started to cool off. Does this tell us anything useful about the future?
Fiscal Multipliers & Hamster Wheels
What is a “fiscal multiplier”? What do they have to do with fiscal stimulus? Do they work? As usual the answer is not a clear cut yes or no. It’s “it depends”.
The Rally In Lumber & Inequality Part 2
What do lumber prices tell us about inequality, the labor market, and future economic consequences? Could they hint at future social and political upheaval?
The Rally In Lumber & Inequality Part 1
Another commodity making record highs is lumber. Specifically, lumber in the United States. What is driving this rally in this time of great uncertainty?
Markets ≠ The Economy: Yields vs Data
Great economic data coming out of the US last week has the market in a tizzy. Unfortunately it’s the confused-not-great kind of tizzy, not the giddy-good kind.
Why You Must Watch The Bond Market & Yield Curve
We know that the economy cannot reliably predict how a market moves,but what if we see things from the opposite perspective, can markets predict the economy?
What Is Really Going On When Markets Do The Unexpected?
Most traders can relate with the scenario where markets react in a way completely opposite to how it should have reacted. The problem lies in the word “should”.
Would You Like To Be Paid To Buy Oil?
WTI traded negative in April 2020. In a world made topsy turvy by Covid this was so absurd that it was hilarious, but would you take the money?
