Heed The Cry Of Negative Real Yields
Negative real yields are falling again, and getting more media coverage this time. Is the narrative shifting from inflation hysteria to stagflation anxiety?
Lumber: What Goes Up Must Come Down
US lumber prices are down ~50% from their highs. Even though this drop comes after a sixfold rally, it does hint strongly at some kind of underlying change.
Post-FOMC Yields 2: Curve Flattening!
Strangely, the long end of the curve has not responded as well to the Fed’s adjustments. The long end has actually moved lower, flattening the yield curve.
Post-FOMC Yields 1: The Fed’s Floor Is NOT Useful
It’s been a week since the Fed’s hawkish June meeting. Now that the UST market has had the time to process the Fed’s changes, how has the yield curve changed?
Has Dr Copper Made A Move?
Having soared to new highs after global shutdowns and reopenings, copper prices have started to cool off. Does this tell us anything useful about the future?
The COVID Economic Shadow Part 2
There will be a spike in economic activity when global lockdowns finally end. But the real question lies beyond the spike – how much of the damage is permanent?
The COVID Economic Shadow Part 1
You would be hard pressed to read economic commentary that does not claim that economies will improve as Covid is brought under control. How true is this?
Negative Real Yields 2: Stagflation?
Negative real yields mean that inflation is expected to be higher than nominal yields. This gives us a big clue as to why real yields are currently negative.
Negative Real Yields 1: 5y vs 10y
The inflationary spotlight has focused on data, nominal yields and breakeven rates. But little attention has been paid to real yields. What do they have to say?
Record Inflation? Bond Yields Disagree
Core PCE has come in at an almost 30 year high. While this adds even more fuel to the popular “economy is overheating” narrative, what do markets make of it?
