Everyone wants to make life changing sums by trading bubbles & crashes.
But, pursuing asymmetric returns is very difficult, as illustrated by Newton & Bitcoin.
We can’t avoid convexity and its effects, but we can make decisions with an understanding of the risks we are taking relative to what we receive in exchange.
Convexity also applies to our employment choices. Jobs have different levels of convexity based on cyclicality, but do they pay enough to account for this?
Imagine that you just started trading, and a more experienced investor offers you a choice: Death By A Thousand Cuts, or Getting Flattened By A Steamroller?