Markets ≠ The Economy: Confusing Them Can Cost You Money

Do not confuse markets with the economy they are not the same thing

Our human brains are wired to reduce complexities into simpler parts, from which we then draw linear conclusions. While this may have served us well from an evolutionary standpoint, it often misleads us when it comes to navigating financial markets.

The financial landscape is littered with many examples of this, the most enduring of which might be the “market as economy” paradigm, which always seeks to explain market moves with economic rationale.

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The Rally In Lumber & Inequality Part 1

What do lumber prices tell us about inequality?

Another commodity making record highs and grabbing headlines is lumber. Specifically, lumber in the United States. What could be driving the rally in this time of great uncertainty?

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Markets ≠ The Economy: Yields vs Data

Positive data is bearish and negative data is bullish? What is going on?

Great economic data coming out of the US last week has the market in a tizzy. Unfortunately it’s the confused-not-great kind of tizzy, not the giddy-everything-is-rosy kind.

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Why You Must Watch The Bond Market & Yield Curve

Quote Paul Samuelson the stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions

We now know that the economy cannot reliably predict how a market moves, but what if we see things from the opposite perspective – can the markets predict the economy?

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What Is Really Going On When Markets Do The Unexpected?

Positive data is bearish and negative data is bullish? What is going on?

It’s 8 am on the first Friday of the month.

You know the drill, you’ve experienced many Fridays like this before. You’ve done your analysis and are prepared to make a trade in half an hour’s time.

No nerves or jitters, it’s just like every other first Friday of the month.

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Would You Like To Be Paid To Buy Oil?

Oil production on land with derricks and wells in the desert

Something crazy happened on the 20th of April 2020. The American crude oil benchmark, WTI, traded below $0. Yes, suppliers were paying people to take their production off their hands. In a world made topsy turvy by Covid just a month prior, having someone pay you to take their oil was so absurd that it was hilarious… but would you take the money?

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Get a different perspective on all things trading & investing every week!