The Macro Charts You Must Know #1
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The week in a nutshell:
- More and more markets are moving in a manner that suggests a less inflationary outcome, even as economic data continues to come in strong
- A broadly stronger Dollar, together with falling yields and a flattening US yield curve are not signs of economic strength
- Rather, they signal tightening USD liquidity and a deteriorating growth outlook
- How these markets move in the coming weeks and months will give us a better idea of how disinflationary things will get
- Stagflation is also becoming increasingly likely, especially if commodity prices stay high due to supply constraints
- WTI will be more of an issue here than copper
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