Even More Bubblelicious US Equities
US equities have grown even more bubblelicious from when we checked-in last.
The Buffett indicator continues to make new highs.
Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio, or CAPE, also continues to move higher, although not yet at its Dot Com era highs. (Do we really want to see the CAPE at those levels?)
Margin debt continues to make new record highs as well, and is growing at a faster rate than in the leadup to both the Dot Com bubble bursting and the Great Financial Crisis.
Can this possibly end in a way that doesn’t involve mass liquidations, margin calls, and a storm of volatility? If history is an accurate guide, then the unfortunate answer would be – probably not.
Of course, the real question is, “When will it end?” To which the unfortunate, and admittedly, very unhelpful answer is, “No one knows!” In the meantime, if you’re making money in the markets, enjoy the ride and keep your stops tight. If not, remember that trying to time the market is difficult at best, and impossible at worst.
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