If Trillions Must Buy, How Important Is The Economy?
In order to understand the relationship between the stock market and the economy, we must consider who the largest participants are, and how they affect prices.
Fiscal Multipliers & Hamster Wheels
What is a “fiscal multiplier”? What do they have to do with fiscal stimulus? Do they work? As usual the answer is not a clear cut yes or no. It’s “it depends”.
Markets ≠ The Economy: Yields vs Data
Great economic data coming out of the US last week has the market in a tizzy. Unfortunately it’s the confused-not-great kind of tizzy, not the giddy-good kind.
Why You Must Watch The Bond Market & Yield Curve
We know that the economy cannot reliably predict how a market moves,but what if we see things from the opposite perspective, can markets predict the economy?
What Is Really Going On When Markets Do The Unexpected?
Most traders can relate with the scenario where markets react in a way completely opposite to how it should have reacted. The problem lies in the word “should”.
Would You Like To Be Paid To Buy Oil?
WTI traded negative in April 2020. In a world made topsy turvy by Covid this was so absurd that it was hilarious, but would you take the money?
Markets ≠ The Economy: Fiscal Stimulus
Markets go gaga over fiscal stimulus, always asking, “Is it big enough?” Here’s another perspective: stimulus to households does not work as advertised.
When Did Container Shipping Get So Famous?
Container shipping is the lifeblood of the global consumer economy. Like blood, it shouldn’t make the news, but when it does, things might be going crazy.
Breaking Down Breakeven Rates Part 4
Higher breakeven rates do not necessarily mean higher inflation. Have too many assumptions been made about the rally in breakeven rates?
Breaking Down Breakeven Rates Part 3
Now that we know what breakeven rates are, we can answer the question- what kind of inflation is currently being priced into breakeven rates?
