The Macro Charts You Must Know #15
Commodities rallied strongly this week, with high oil prices in particular raising concerns over global growth, with long yields failing to rally in tandem.
Central Banks CAN’T Forecast Better, So Why Trust Them?
A quick way to see if central banks really have more insight into the future is by looking at their inflation forecasting record… which isn’t very good.
The Fed’s Focus On The Wrong Thing: RRP
The Fed’s printing of bank reserves has not addressed serious problems in the economy, which suggests that its current policy framework is ineffective at best.
How Does The 80/20 Rule Apply To Investing? 4
Since markets are not normally distributed, we must understand how they really function. How does Pareto affect the way we think of and trade the markets?
The Macro Charts You Must Know #14
Stagflation worries take center stage as Europe continues to struggle with high nat gas prices, and oil prices march higher, pushing long term rates up as well.
How Does The 80/20 Rule Apply To Investing? 3
The most important point to understand about markets is that outcomes aren’t normally distributed. Instead, they follow a Pareto distribution – the 80/20 Rule.
How Does The 80/20 Rule Apply To Investing? 2
The expected value thought process is subjective and vulnerable to cognitive bias, and every trader will come up with different numbers and scenarios.
How Does The 80/20 Rule Apply To Investing? 1
Most people understand that few outcomes in markets are certain, which means that they are rarely binary. How does this affect the way we think about markets?
Why Is 2nd Order Thinking Important In Trading & Investing?
Figuring out 2nd order consequences is especially pertinent in financial markets, whose complexity leads to ripple effects being felt in unexpected ways.
The Macro Charts You Must Know #13
The USD strengthened & long yields had a huge rally, but how much more can yield curves steepen if energy prices remain so elevated before stagflation sets in?
