The Devil In Chinese Inflation Data
China’s PPI reading for Feb 2021 came in at the highest level since February 2018. Demand must be booming! Not so fast, CPI tells a different story.
China’s PPI reading for Feb 2021 came in at the highest level since February 2018. Demand must be booming! Not so fast, CPI tells a different story.
We know that the economy cannot reliably predict how a market moves,but what if we see things from the opposite perspective, can markets predict the economy?
People have looked at the correlation between stock prices and bank reserves and concluded that Fed QE is the reason for soaring equities. This just isn’t true.
QE is meant to generate inflation in the economy by printing money. Unfortunately, the only simple part of that two word phrase is the word “printing”.
Most traders can relate with the scenario where markets react in a way completely opposite to how it should have reacted. The problem lies in the word “should”.
The premise of black and white thinking is in itself extreme. This is because, for one viewpoint to be correct, it must disprove the other viewpoint entirely.
Understanding that emotion is more important a driver of market prices than economic conditions gives traders an extremely valuable perspective.
The Eurozone’s periphery has been having a debt bonanza, with investors queuing up to buy their debt. Have people forgotten about the European debt crisis?
Are recent acute liquidity problems in the Treasury market due to recent narratives focused on inflation? Or is there something more going on, like in repo?
Liquidity is what truly matters in the Repo market, and when it dries up, all other financial markets fall into chaos, as ‘08 and ‘20 both demonstrated.